The days of the lumbering center dominating the NBA with a myriad of post moves is over. When giant centers like Shaq, Hakeem and Ewing were dominating the League it seemed that would always be the focal point of good teams. Fast forward to this year's Finals where the champs benched their closest thing to an old school big (Andrew Bogut) to fully commit to small ball to run the Cavs out of the Series. Who would have believed that giant, hulking centers would become outdated and even liabilities? The truth is the game always evolves. So who will be the next dinosaur of the NBA?
Looking into my NBA crystal ball I see a League that will almost fully commit to the pace and space model over the next few seasons. That makes the trick of predicting the next change dependent on anticipating how teams will evolve to combat pace and space. If you are paying attention you see some teams already enacting their own strategies. The Milwaukee Bucks are the best example of a team that have constructed themselves to combat the newest offensive trends. They have committed to finding long athletes at every position who can switch almost every screen without ending up in a terrible mismatch. More and more teams are headed this way. Want more proof? Willie Cauley-Stein was the sixth pick in the Draft with practically no offensive ability. He isn't even a great rebounder. His value is predicated on his ability to guard all five positions. The premium on this ability shows that teams are going all in to defeat pace and space.
This seismic shift will leave some type of NBA player irrelevant. So who will join the hulking post player in extinction? I firmly believe it is the 3 and D player that is consistently banking huge contracts in the most recent free agent period.
So why them? They will die out because of their limited skill sets. Inherently, those that are classified as 3 and D guys aren't creators off the dribble. I can't see this as an acceptable trade off moving forward. As defenses get longer and more athletic (ie the Bucks) they will become much more adept at closing out to the corner 3 that these players feast on. When those close outs come, the value of being able to put the ball on the floor and make plays will go up immensely. More small guys in lineups mean more shooters. This will make guys who can stretch the floor more common. What will not be common are those who can stretch the floor and attack the rim. 3 and D guys will be a dime a dozen. Being able to space the floor as a wing won't be a luxury it will be a requirement. As such, it will cease to be paid as a premium skill.
So what does it all mean? Sorry teams with cap room who have thrown big money contracts at young 3 and D guys recently. Those contracts are going to age poorly. I'm looking at you Raptors. Everyone is complimentary of the DeMarre Carroll deal today but it's not going to look so good as more and more good shooting wings come in the League. Sure he is a great competitor but that is really his best skill. He is a plus defender which will keep his deal from being a total disaster, but there will be better ways to spend eight figures in the future.
To some degree this distinction already exists. Of course, guys who can shoot AND make plays are better than those who just space the floor. The point is just that the pendulum has swung too far in the favor of players who can really shoot it. The guys who are freak athletes and can defend are the ones who are undervalued right now. Remember, that with less true big men in the NBA there are less rim protectors. This further accentuates the value of guys who can attack the rim off the dribble. The Draymond Greens of the world are going to be worth big bucks moving forward while the DeMarre Carrolls are going to be substantially overpaid.
Goodbye and good riddance to the run of the mill 3 and D guy. Shooting is great and fun, but tomorrow's NBA will value guys who can stretch the floor AND attack those close outs by finishing at the rim or making the right pass.
Thanks everyone for reading this nerd basketball piece. Make sure to keep your eyes on balls. It just means you like sports!
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