Tottenham's Leverage Problem: Why Spurs may pony up 25m for Berahino

Saido Berahino is not worth a 25m transfer fee in a vacuum. A reasonable fee for him would likely be somewhere between 15 and 18m. For much of the transfer season I've been convinced that Tottenham would be able to purchase the young West Brom forward for a fee within that range. After this weekend's events on the pitch and today's news from Jeremy Peace I think we may be forced to meet their price.

That's right folks, I'm telling you that I believe Daniel Levy will be defeated by Jeremy Peace in these negotiations. The fact of the matter is that West Brom are armed with almost all of the leverage in this transfer tussle. Let's examine the undisputable facts. Working in West Brom's favor are quite a few key factors. They are in possession of the prized commodity (Berahino) and are under very little pressure to sell him. This could change if the player were to turn in a transfer request but as of yet that has not occurred. They also are not under pressure to move quickly since they have already signed Rondon as his replacement. In this game of chicken, West Brom has no need to blink first. They can comfortably wait until deadline to finish a deal prior to Deadline Day. Peace's statement today was also a master stroke by the West Brim chairman to make sure fan opinion doesn't turn against him and mitigate his advantages. He has solidified his base of fan support by publicly rejecting the Spurs' opening bid. This ensures his ability to continue negotiations without being criticized by fans as rolling over to Tottenham.

 On the other hand, Daniel Levy is entirely under the gun. Tottenham's need for strikers was obvious when the Window opened and the need has only grown since then. Emmanuel Adebayor has been banished, Roberto Soldado has been sold and now Harry Kane has been declared unfit by manager Mauricio Pochettino. Nacer Chadli and Erik Lamela are the squad's current backups at striker and both are entirely unqualified. Perhaps Clinton N'Jie can exceed immediate expectations, but surely the youngster can't be counted on for such a prominent role so quickly after his arrival. Every Spurs fan can agree that more strikers must be added to threaten the top 4.

While Jeremy Peace quelled fan pressure in advance, Daniel Levy's inaction has done the opposite. I suspect he was betting on West Brom's valuation for Berahino to drop as the window's close neared while the opposite has occurred. I'm not saying it wasn't a smart bet on Levy's part, but it hasn't paid off. Fan pressure has justifiably increased on the notoriously slow acting Spurs chairman which further compromises his negotiating position. 

The only card Levy can hope to play to turn things back in Tottenham's favor is the potential sale of defender Federico Fazio. Media reports have speculated the Baggies are hot after Fazio at a fee of around 5m. I'd expect Levy to hold up Fazio's sale to push Peace to negotiate more liberally for Berahino. I can't imagine this tactic being a huge success, but I can't see Levy giving an inch that could possibly help him.

So what should we expect to happen with Berahino in the next two weeks? My guess is that you will see reports of heightened Spurs interest in QPR forward Charlie Austin and likely some new striker targets as soon as tomorrow. No time can be wasted in scaring West Brom into thinking there is competition. As a reaction, count on more sabre rattling by West Brom too. Expect renewed Berahino to Man City rumors to increase and we may even see more public rhetoric from Peace about holding on to his starlet.

But what does it all mean??? Tottenham will end up paying very close to 25m for Berahino contrary to Daniel Levy's wishes. Fans will criticize the fee but will take some satisfaction at the addition of a young English talent with experience in the Premier League. Enjoy the next two weeks, it's going to be a wild ride.

Which Striker(s) Should and Will Tottenham Sign?

Tottenham fans worldwide are in agreement that our beloved Spurs must supplement our attack force to mount a heroic assault in the Top 4. A multitude of names have been bandied about but who are the realistic targets? More importantly who are the right targets? Read on to see my handicapping of the main target's odds of signing for Tottenham and the grading of the possible fit.

Target 1- Saido Berahino

Probability of Signing-50%

Fit Grade-A+

Berahino has been a name that has divided fan opinion a great deal. The majority of the debate hasn't centered around Berahino's ability, but rather his rumored 25M price tag. I view this sum as a slightly inflated number, but certainly not out of the realm of reason. If we can get him for around 20M all in I would find him to be a terrific buy. The positives are pretty obvious. He is a fast, Premier League proven striker that has previously established chemistry with Harry Kane. I'm not sure if the importance of finding a partner who plays well and gets along with Kane can be overstated. If we can make a deal that nets us a young, quality player who also makes us more likely to retain our young talisman then we can afford to overspend to acquire him. In fact, we can't afford not to make every effort to bring in the West Brom forward. Of course, U21 strikers who are proven in the Premier League are prized commodities which makes the deal difficult to complete. While I wish it were more likely, it's a 50/50 shot.

Target 2- Charlie Austin

Probability of Signing-20%

Fit Grade-C+

I think the QPR striker is a fine player and I even believe he is an above average Premier League striker. My only concern with him is that he is a poor man's Harry Kane. That in and of itself isn't a bad thing, it simply lowers his value to Tottenham. Given Pochettino's preference to play a single striker he is far from an ideal fit to play with Kane on a regular basis so what would he really be utilized for? He would be an excellent option to provide cover in case of a serious Kane injury and to play in Europa League and Cup competitons but can you really see Daniel Levy paying big money for that? I can't and that's why I see him moving to somewhere other than North London on Deadline Day. He is a good player, but not what Tottenham seems to be a priority at the moment.

Target 3- Clinton N'jie

Probability of Signing-50%

Fit Grade-B+

Most are pretty down on the young Cameroon striker signing for Tottenham and I think that's grossly unfair both to the player and the Club. If you are viewing N'jie's signing as the total sum of the Club's transfer plans then you are right to be disappointed. However, I don't think that is anywhere near accurate. Instead, I choose to view the young, pacy prospect as more of a wide developmental prospect and less of a backup striker. Given our lack of pace on the wing, he profiles as a player who can really help our squad now and in the future. Is he the answer to our needs? Who can know at his age, but he is worth a punt. I am, however, more skeptical than most about the chances of this deal happening. He is reported to be in London for his medical, but we haven't seen so much as an airport photo yet. Add the lack of that photo with the reported quotes from his current Club's president about there being no bid from Tottenham and it equals significant skepticism.

Target 4- Javier Hernandez

Probability of Signing-10%

Fit Grade-C

The Man United striker has struggled to find a home as of late and has recently been named as a Spurs target. I'm not entirely sure I buy this, but I'll indulge the press in this space. Much like Austin, I think he is a fine player but question his fit with Tottenham. He doesn't have the red hot motor that Poch requires as a pressing striker but does have a nose for goal that can't be denied. He would be fine as cover for Kane but not ideal. I can't see United offering us a cut rate deal that may strengthen us so I feel the odds of this coming off are quite low. Perhaps this could happen as a last resort on Deadline Day but let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Conclusion-In all likelihood we may end up with a striker and wide forward whose name hasn't reached the rumor mill yet. Berahino still represents the best case scenario we know about but perhaps Pochettino's "private target" will surprise us all!