Tottenham's Leverage Problem: Why Spurs may pony up 25m for Berahino

Saido Berahino is not worth a 25m transfer fee in a vacuum. A reasonable fee for him would likely be somewhere between 15 and 18m. For much of the transfer season I've been convinced that Tottenham would be able to purchase the young West Brom forward for a fee within that range. After this weekend's events on the pitch and today's news from Jeremy Peace I think we may be forced to meet their price.

That's right folks, I'm telling you that I believe Daniel Levy will be defeated by Jeremy Peace in these negotiations. The fact of the matter is that West Brom are armed with almost all of the leverage in this transfer tussle. Let's examine the undisputable facts. Working in West Brom's favor are quite a few key factors. They are in possession of the prized commodity (Berahino) and are under very little pressure to sell him. This could change if the player were to turn in a transfer request but as of yet that has not occurred. They also are not under pressure to move quickly since they have already signed Rondon as his replacement. In this game of chicken, West Brom has no need to blink first. They can comfortably wait until deadline to finish a deal prior to Deadline Day. Peace's statement today was also a master stroke by the West Brim chairman to make sure fan opinion doesn't turn against him and mitigate his advantages. He has solidified his base of fan support by publicly rejecting the Spurs' opening bid. This ensures his ability to continue negotiations without being criticized by fans as rolling over to Tottenham.

 On the other hand, Daniel Levy is entirely under the gun. Tottenham's need for strikers was obvious when the Window opened and the need has only grown since then. Emmanuel Adebayor has been banished, Roberto Soldado has been sold and now Harry Kane has been declared unfit by manager Mauricio Pochettino. Nacer Chadli and Erik Lamela are the squad's current backups at striker and both are entirely unqualified. Perhaps Clinton N'Jie can exceed immediate expectations, but surely the youngster can't be counted on for such a prominent role so quickly after his arrival. Every Spurs fan can agree that more strikers must be added to threaten the top 4.

While Jeremy Peace quelled fan pressure in advance, Daniel Levy's inaction has done the opposite. I suspect he was betting on West Brom's valuation for Berahino to drop as the window's close neared while the opposite has occurred. I'm not saying it wasn't a smart bet on Levy's part, but it hasn't paid off. Fan pressure has justifiably increased on the notoriously slow acting Spurs chairman which further compromises his negotiating position. 

The only card Levy can hope to play to turn things back in Tottenham's favor is the potential sale of defender Federico Fazio. Media reports have speculated the Baggies are hot after Fazio at a fee of around 5m. I'd expect Levy to hold up Fazio's sale to push Peace to negotiate more liberally for Berahino. I can't imagine this tactic being a huge success, but I can't see Levy giving an inch that could possibly help him.

So what should we expect to happen with Berahino in the next two weeks? My guess is that you will see reports of heightened Spurs interest in QPR forward Charlie Austin and likely some new striker targets as soon as tomorrow. No time can be wasted in scaring West Brom into thinking there is competition. As a reaction, count on more sabre rattling by West Brom too. Expect renewed Berahino to Man City rumors to increase and we may even see more public rhetoric from Peace about holding on to his starlet.

But what does it all mean??? Tottenham will end up paying very close to 25m for Berahino contrary to Daniel Levy's wishes. Fans will criticize the fee but will take some satisfaction at the addition of a young English talent with experience in the Premier League. Enjoy the next two weeks, it's going to be a wild ride.

Truth, Fairness and Daniel Levy

Daniel Levy is an easy target. He is tasked with operating Tottenham Hotspur Football Club in a responsible financial manner in an age where transfer fees and player wages sky rocket. He has an uncanny resemblance to Dr. Evil of Austin Powers fame and rarely engages the fans in any meaningful way. I understand why he frustrates us and becomes the punch line of a variety of jokes. The man even deserves serious criticism for a variety of his choices as Chairman (red on the kit, bowing too much to corporate interests, etc) but I am sick and tired of the venom directed at his negotiation tactics.

I am writing this on the eve of our match against Stoke and the story dominating Spurs at the moment is the possibility of Arsenal swooping in to hijack our long rumored purchase of Clinton N'Jie. This has produced a wave of anti-Levy sentiment citing his penny pinching as the reason for us losing out. The truth is we as fans are likely correct that Levy refusing to cave in on some relatively minor point of negotiation has caused this stress in the deal. Where our fan base is wrong, is when we classify this as some horrible character flaw of Daniel Levy that exemplifies his lack of ambition. 

Let's face some facts here. We are not blessed with the financial advantages of our competitors at the top of the League Table. ESPN recently released their kit valued for the season and we finished sixth in the revenue produced from sponsors. Our stadium size limits our revenue. We are not owned by an individual obsessed with winning at all costs. For us to have the type of success we want (aka competing for League titles and regular Champions League appearances) we have to punch above our weight. This isn't a death sentence but it is a reality we must recognize. It's part of what makes us Spurs.

Daniel Levy realizes this. He, more than any of us fights against this financial reality on a daily basis. He and the Club have taken very logical and systematic steps to address these issues. We built one of the finest training centers in the world to attract young (and therefore relatively cheap) talent. Whether we sell them for a profit or incorporate them into our First Team they help us compete financially. We are moving forward with plans to build a new stadium that will drastically improve our capacity for ticketing and sponsorship revenue. The stadium plans likely hamstring Levy's spending even more than normal in the short term but still will provide financial benefit in the long term.

So why do we repeatedly curse Levy's financial conservatism? It's not as if we are not investing money we save on transfers and/or wages back into the Club. Our training facility and upcoming new stadium are the clear benefits of our conservative finances. The millions of dollars that Daniel Levy saves the Club on multiple transfers throughout each season add up and pay for these things. The shirt sales that Khumalo sold in Africa? Those sales may have paid for the physio room in the training center. The money we got out of selling Lewis Holtby after just one season? Perhaps that's a concession stand in the new stadium. The point is that these "little negotiating points" add up to things that Levy sees are crucial to the future elevation of Tottenham.

Him working hard to save us money has undoubtedly cost us players who could have helped our squads over his tenure. Maybe an aggressive bid for Morgan Schneiderlin would've secured us a Champions League place last year. Those criticisms are fair and I will often join other fans in them. What isn't fair, is to paint Levy as a Chairman who doesn't care about winning. He likely cares more than you or I but sees a different path for long term success. He sees a new stadium as the key to making us financially strong enough go challenge any Club in the Premier League. That is why he is a miserly negotiatior. His savings go to strengthen the Club's foundation; not to the pockets of ENIC.

If after the new stadium is built and paid for we still lag behind our competitors in transfer fees and wage structures then by all means, let's fire away at Daniel Levy's ambition. Right now we don't have any reason to doubt his desire to help the Club we love be the world's best. Moving forward let us appreciate the cut throat negotiations that Daniel Levy presides over because each one gets us one step closer to an even playing field. 

There are plenty of justified reasons to criticize Daniel Levy. Lack of ambition for Tottenham just isn't one of them.

Five Tottenham Questions That Will Define The Season

The season is nearly among us and the general consensus seems to be that Tottenham will once again finish just outside Champions League qualification. However, there seems to be a fair amount of uncertainty around major aspects of the squad. Given that uncertainty, I believe there is still a wide variance of where our beloved Spurs could finish. I see room to move up or down largely based on the following 5 burning questions.

1. How good is the Vertonghen-Alderweireld partnership be? 

Last year individual errors in defense plagued Tottenham more than anything else. In comes Toby Aldeweireld as the Club's highest profile signing to date as the man charged to fix this issue. I am very optimistic about the partnership based on several factors. First, Toby has a full season of Premier League football under his belt at Southampton where he performed very well. He will have a small learning curve and we don't have to guess whether or not he can compete. We know he can and a repeat of last year's play would be an upgrade for us. Secondly, he has a great relationship with Vertonghen stemming from their time playing together for Belgium. Let's face it, Vertonghen is not the easiest teammate to communicate with so their prior relationship eases my concerns there. Add those factors to the quality we have seen from both in the preseason and there is every reason to feel like the Spurs defense will be much more consistent this season.

2. Can Harry Kane avoid the sophomore jinx?

Harry burst onto the scene last year and lit up the Premier League and ultimately became an English international. Yet the past is littered with one season wonders who find goal scoring magic for a time but can't sustain it. While I must admit that I am not confident Kane will be a top 5 striker in the League this year I don't believe last year was a fluke. I think he will suffer some this year from increased defensive attention and the mental fatigue that inevitably follows such a rocket like rise to stardom. I am even almost certain that he won't match his goal tally from last season even considering he will have a full season as our first choice striker. He will however, continue to be a good striker for Spurs and his performance floor is quite high. The reason for the safety in projecting his performance is his tireless work rate. There is some randomness to finding the back of the net but he will continue to create chances because he will grind and put himself in dangerous positions. Worst case, we still have an above average striker who suffers a mild dip after his meteoric rise.

3. So Kane can score goals, can enough other players chip in?

This question will largely be answered by those who will fill the three spots behind Kane every week. Christian Eriksen is, in my view, a world class talent that will produce goals from open play and set pieces. If Alex Pritchard or another player can provide him more regular rest throughout the year I believe he will perform at a high level without the burnout that have sullied his last two campaigns.

The next man who will try to supplement the scoring is Nacer Chadli. Whether he is playing wide or as the backup striker he must contribute goals consistently. He had a good return last year in terms of goals but he must add to that this season while also impacting the game in other ways. I think he will continue to perform at a Dempsey like level which isn't enough to justify the minutes he will receive. He is a good squad player but relying on him to start every week speaks to the challenges we face offensively.

The third spot is the glaring weak link to the goal scoring tally. No matter who plays there, I don't see them contributing double digit goals. Lamela has the talent, but seems destined to flop at Tottenham. Mousa Dembele will provide quality support for the defense his aversion to penetrating the final third hamstrings him. Other options like Tom Carroll, Andros Townsend or Alex Pritchard also seem much better suited for Europa Leage time. The lack of quality at this position could be our undoing.

4. Is the Bentaleb/Mason pairing good enough?

I'm afraid the short, but accurate answer is no. Bentaleb has the ability but suffers from the lack of a quality, experienced partner to learn from. Mason, played reasonably well last season but seems to be better suited to play in a three man midfield. I admire his spirit too, but he might be out of his depth as a starter at a Club with Champions League ambitions. The strengthening of the back 4 will help mask this partnership's deficiencies at times, but not at the most crucial moments. The only hope I have for our CDM partnership is for a late transfer addition or a Delli Alli ascendancy rivaling that of Kane's a season ago. This could allow Bentaleb to assume the role of the holding midfielder which may suit him better in the long term.

5. Who will join before the Transfer Window closes?

No matter what you think of Daniel Levy it would be foolish to think we won't add talent closer to Deadline Day. Personally, I believe we will add a striker, a defensive midfielder and possibly a hybrid wide forward/striker. How would your outlook change if we added Berahino, Moutinho and Bender? I don't foresee this type of drastic help but if we could add three players who could benefit us three points each that could change our finishing position significantly. I think realistically we can add one player who will be a clear upgrade as a starter so I don't believe transfers will change my outlook all that much. Maybe Pochettino's private target is Gareth Bale or Paul Pogba? I suppose there are less likely things......like Jose Mourinho and Arsene Wenger revealing a torrid love affair between them.

So what will happen?

The season will be full of the usual twists and turns but our destination will likely be 5th once again. Success for me will be defined by how many first teamers we can develop from our youthful contingent. If several players like Delli Alli and Josh Onomah prove themselves as capable Champions League capable talents then our future is very bright. If not, we will enter the next off season still hoping for Levyto catapult us into the Top 4 with shrewd transfer business. Unfortunately we know how that story ends.

Is Enes Kanter a lock to be in OKC next season? Should he be a lock? #Thunder #ThunderUp #NBAFreeAgency

I get it Thunder fans. Enes Kanter can score. He can really score. He gives us a low post presence that we haven't had since well....ever. But is that enough to make him the right fit for this roster? Does his A+ offense really compensate for his F- defense? On a rookie contract I think the answer is a resounding yes, but for a guy who will likely make over 10 million a year on his next deal I'm not so sure.

The Case for Kanter: Did I mention he can score? We are talking about a 24 year old who averaged 18 and 11 for the Thunder after he came over via trade. There aren't a ton of guys who can do that at any age in this League, much less at 24. What's even more impressive, is that he did this work predominantly without Durant or Ibaka on the floor. Of course that provided him with more shots, but the floor was much more compact without those two to stretch the defense. He was efficient without those guys too. He shot over 55% from the floor and is a quality FT shooter at over 77%. There can be no question that he is a legitimate low post scorer. He is part of dying breed.

His status as such a forceful low post threat should allow him to help the Thunder even more when they are back at full strength. Imagine the stress that a lineup of Westbrook, Morrow, Durant, Kanter and Ibaka could put on a defense. You are talking about 5 big time scoring options that have to be keyed on at all times. You put Enes Kanter on the floor with the starters and you may be talking about a historically efficient NBA offense. His effect on the offense could even make playing Andre Roberson more palatable (aka easier to hide). He also proved that he could play offensively along with Steven Adams so he's a part who fits in the offense no matter who's on the floor.

Many would argue that the Thunder have to keep Kanter because they gave up assets to get him. The Thunder organization is too smart for this close minded thinking. What's gone is gone, the question to retain Kanter can only come down to what he can provide the franchise over a potential replacement. Still, Kanter is a valuable asset due to his age and unique skill set. If the Thunder don't pay him what he wants it's a pretty good bet that a competitor will. He'd also be a challenge to replace given the fact that OKC only has about 3 million dollars in cap space at the moment. Signing Kanter would put them over the Cap but is allowable because it involves resigning your own player. If you don't resign Kanter, you are more or less restricted to stay under the Luxury Tax threshold which means you'd have to replace Kanter with a minimum or rookie salary. This would be a challenge for Sam Presti despite how excellent he is at his job.

So the case to keep him is pretty simple. He is an offensive juggernaut who'd be nearly impossible to replace via free agency. Now to the other side of the coin.

The Case to Cut Kanter: Forgive the alliteration but it was fun. As good as Kanter is on the offensive end he is at least as horrible on the defensive end. I'm not sure he can guard anyone. The Thunder D was abhorrent with him on the floor last year. This is not up for debate. He literally had the worst defensive statistics in the League last year at center. Yes, even worse than Andrea Bargnani in some cases. I'm not going to delve into the trove of stats that can back up the fact that Kanter can't guard anyone defensively. Accept the last year he was about as good a defender as the chair who Darko worked out against.

With that being said, I don't think it's impossible that Kanter could become an average defender. It's not as if he's devoid of athleticism or physical gifts. He is a strong player who can bang and has at least some lateral quickness. We're not looking at Mutumbo here, but he could become an average defender with the right coaching and effort. Even better for Enes, is that he would potentially share the floor with either Serge Ibaka or Steven Adams. That means he almost always would guard the weaker post on the other team. He has been a fair rebounder as well so at least he's qualified to terminate the possession. Thunder defense with Kanter on the floor is not a hopeless situation. He come become an average defender and when combined with Ibaka or Adams that would make the OKC front line above average defensively. Not great, but not awful either.

Signing Kanter also means that the Thunder are locked into this core group, and only this core group for the foreseeable future. (Yes, Durant could leave and if he does they will blow the team up anyway so this would be a pointless discussion. Let's just hope that doesn't occur) Signing Kanter would put the Thunder well over the Tax and would mean the only additions they could make moving forward would be minimum contracts and draftees. Given the likelihood that OKC won't have a pick in the lottery for the foreseeable future it means it would be very difficult to substantially upgrade the roster. We've already gone over the challenge of replacing Kanter if he walks and the finances are just as restrictive if he stays. When the Kanter deal occurred Sam Presti effectively hitched his wagon to this group of guys. You may not like it, but it's already done. Letting Kanter go would allow the Thunder some flexibility moving forward, but not much.

I'm writing this piece just 48 hours before the NBA Draft with the Thunder positioned with the 14th pick. This draft is loaded with a variety of power forwards who should be available for OKC. The team's best opportunity to replace Kanter in a cost effective manner would be to draft his replacement. Are you really convinced that Trey Lyles, Bobby Portis or someone else couldn't provide value close to Kanter next year? No one would put up the offense but someone could shatter what Enes does defensively. Don't think it's reasonable to expect equal value, but you could recoup 75% the production for 25% of the price.

So what will happen: This might be the easiest question to answer. I think the Thunder will almost certainly keep Enes Kanter because he's the most valuable asset they can acquire or retain. Absent of moving Dion Waiters (a guy can dream can't he?) the Thunder can't clear enough cap room to replace Kanter effectively. While they could draft his replacement at 14, the team will likely use that spot to strengthen another area of the team. If you burn the 14th pick on a big, you're pretty limited in terms of finding wing/back court help later in the draft or free agency. Presti went all in with the Kanter deal for a reason, because he believe he's the missing piece. Don't think anything we saw last year would change Presti's feelings. So, I think he's back somewhere in the 4 yr/40M range.

So what should happen: This is a much more difficult question to answer. In a vacuum, I don't think Enes Kanter is worth 10 million a  year. However, letting him walk doesn't provide OKC with 10 million to spend. I think this is a classic case of the CBA making teams overpay their own guys because they can't replace them under the cap. I think there could be a better bargain for Kanter's minutes available through the Draft, but that means the Thunder can't get help elsewhere. That doesn't feel like the right move for a team trying to win a title. Begrudgingly, I have to say that Kanter must remain.

Thanks for reading and I encourage feedback of any kind. Don't forget to keep your eyes on the Thunder's balls all year long :)