The season is nearly among us and the general consensus seems to be that Tottenham will once again finish just outside Champions League qualification. However, there seems to be a fair amount of uncertainty around major aspects of the squad. Given that uncertainty, I believe there is still a wide variance of where our beloved Spurs could finish. I see room to move up or down largely based on the following 5 burning questions.
1. How good is the Vertonghen-Alderweireld partnership be?
Last year individual errors in defense plagued Tottenham more than anything else. In comes Toby Aldeweireld as the Club's highest profile signing to date as the man charged to fix this issue. I am very optimistic about the partnership based on several factors. First, Toby has a full season of Premier League football under his belt at Southampton where he performed very well. He will have a small learning curve and we don't have to guess whether or not he can compete. We know he can and a repeat of last year's play would be an upgrade for us. Secondly, he has a great relationship with Vertonghen stemming from their time playing together for Belgium. Let's face it, Vertonghen is not the easiest teammate to communicate with so their prior relationship eases my concerns there. Add those factors to the quality we have seen from both in the preseason and there is every reason to feel like the Spurs defense will be much more consistent this season.
2. Can Harry Kane avoid the sophomore jinx?
Harry burst onto the scene last year and lit up the Premier League and ultimately became an English international. Yet the past is littered with one season wonders who find goal scoring magic for a time but can't sustain it. While I must admit that I am not confident Kane will be a top 5 striker in the League this year I don't believe last year was a fluke. I think he will suffer some this year from increased defensive attention and the mental fatigue that inevitably follows such a rocket like rise to stardom. I am even almost certain that he won't match his goal tally from last season even considering he will have a full season as our first choice striker. He will however, continue to be a good striker for Spurs and his performance floor is quite high. The reason for the safety in projecting his performance is his tireless work rate. There is some randomness to finding the back of the net but he will continue to create chances because he will grind and put himself in dangerous positions. Worst case, we still have an above average striker who suffers a mild dip after his meteoric rise.
3. So Kane can score goals, can enough other players chip in?
This question will largely be answered by those who will fill the three spots behind Kane every week. Christian Eriksen is, in my view, a world class talent that will produce goals from open play and set pieces. If Alex Pritchard or another player can provide him more regular rest throughout the year I believe he will perform at a high level without the burnout that have sullied his last two campaigns.
The next man who will try to supplement the scoring is Nacer Chadli. Whether he is playing wide or as the backup striker he must contribute goals consistently. He had a good return last year in terms of goals but he must add to that this season while also impacting the game in other ways. I think he will continue to perform at a Dempsey like level which isn't enough to justify the minutes he will receive. He is a good squad player but relying on him to start every week speaks to the challenges we face offensively.
The third spot is the glaring weak link to the goal scoring tally. No matter who plays there, I don't see them contributing double digit goals. Lamela has the talent, but seems destined to flop at Tottenham. Mousa Dembele will provide quality support for the defense his aversion to penetrating the final third hamstrings him. Other options like Tom Carroll, Andros Townsend or Alex Pritchard also seem much better suited for Europa Leage time. The lack of quality at this position could be our undoing.
4. Is the Bentaleb/Mason pairing good enough?
I'm afraid the short, but accurate answer is no. Bentaleb has the ability but suffers from the lack of a quality, experienced partner to learn from. Mason, played reasonably well last season but seems to be better suited to play in a three man midfield. I admire his spirit too, but he might be out of his depth as a starter at a Club with Champions League ambitions. The strengthening of the back 4 will help mask this partnership's deficiencies at times, but not at the most crucial moments. The only hope I have for our CDM partnership is for a late transfer addition or a Delli Alli ascendancy rivaling that of Kane's a season ago. This could allow Bentaleb to assume the role of the holding midfielder which may suit him better in the long term.
5. Who will join before the Transfer Window closes?
No matter what you think of Daniel Levy it would be foolish to think we won't add talent closer to Deadline Day. Personally, I believe we will add a striker, a defensive midfielder and possibly a hybrid wide forward/striker. How would your outlook change if we added Berahino, Moutinho and Bender? I don't foresee this type of drastic help but if we could add three players who could benefit us three points each that could change our finishing position significantly. I think realistically we can add one player who will be a clear upgrade as a starter so I don't believe transfers will change my outlook all that much. Maybe Pochettino's private target is Gareth Bale or Paul Pogba? I suppose there are less likely things......like Jose Mourinho and Arsene Wenger revealing a torrid love affair between them.
So what will happen?
The season will be full of the usual twists and turns but our destination will likely be 5th once again. Success for me will be defined by how many first teamers we can develop from our youthful contingent. If several players like Delli Alli and Josh Onomah prove themselves as capable Champions League capable talents then our future is very bright. If not, we will enter the next off season still hoping for Levyto catapult us into the Top 4 with shrewd transfer business. Unfortunately we know how that story ends.
