The Case for Kanter: Did I mention he can score? We are talking about a 24 year old who averaged 18 and 11 for the Thunder after he came over via trade. There aren't a ton of guys who can do that at any age in this League, much less at 24. What's even more impressive, is that he did this work predominantly without Durant or Ibaka on the floor. Of course that provided him with more shots, but the floor was much more compact without those two to stretch the defense. He was efficient without those guys too. He shot over 55% from the floor and is a quality FT shooter at over 77%. There can be no question that he is a legitimate low post scorer. He is part of dying breed.
His status as such a forceful low post threat should allow him to help the Thunder even more when they are back at full strength. Imagine the stress that a lineup of Westbrook, Morrow, Durant, Kanter and Ibaka could put on a defense. You are talking about 5 big time scoring options that have to be keyed on at all times. You put Enes Kanter on the floor with the starters and you may be talking about a historically efficient NBA offense. His effect on the offense could even make playing Andre Roberson more palatable (aka easier to hide). He also proved that he could play offensively along with Steven Adams so he's a part who fits in the offense no matter who's on the floor.
Many would argue that the Thunder have to keep Kanter because they gave up assets to get him. The Thunder organization is too smart for this close minded thinking. What's gone is gone, the question to retain Kanter can only come down to what he can provide the franchise over a potential replacement. Still, Kanter is a valuable asset due to his age and unique skill set. If the Thunder don't pay him what he wants it's a pretty good bet that a competitor will. He'd also be a challenge to replace given the fact that OKC only has about 3 million dollars in cap space at the moment. Signing Kanter would put them over the Cap but is allowable because it involves resigning your own player. If you don't resign Kanter, you are more or less restricted to stay under the Luxury Tax threshold which means you'd have to replace Kanter with a minimum or rookie salary. This would be a challenge for Sam Presti despite how excellent he is at his job.
So the case to keep him is pretty simple. He is an offensive juggernaut who'd be nearly impossible to replace via free agency. Now to the other side of the coin.
The Case to Cut Kanter: Forgive the alliteration but it was fun. As good as Kanter is on the offensive end he is at least as horrible on the defensive end. I'm not sure he can guard anyone. The Thunder D was abhorrent with him on the floor last year. This is not up for debate. He literally had the worst defensive statistics in the League last year at center. Yes, even worse than Andrea Bargnani in some cases. I'm not going to delve into the trove of stats that can back up the fact that Kanter can't guard anyone defensively. Accept the last year he was about as good a defender as the chair who Darko worked out against.
With that being said, I don't think it's impossible that Kanter could become an average defender. It's not as if he's devoid of athleticism or physical gifts. He is a strong player who can bang and has at least some lateral quickness. We're not looking at Mutumbo here, but he could become an average defender with the right coaching and effort. Even better for Enes, is that he would potentially share the floor with either Serge Ibaka or Steven Adams. That means he almost always would guard the weaker post on the other team. He has been a fair rebounder as well so at least he's qualified to terminate the possession. Thunder defense with Kanter on the floor is not a hopeless situation. He come become an average defender and when combined with Ibaka or Adams that would make the OKC front line above average defensively. Not great, but not awful either.
Signing Kanter also means that the Thunder are locked into this core group, and only this core group for the foreseeable future. (Yes, Durant could leave and if he does they will blow the team up anyway so this would be a pointless discussion. Let's just hope that doesn't occur) Signing Kanter would put the Thunder well over the Tax and would mean the only additions they could make moving forward would be minimum contracts and draftees. Given the likelihood that OKC won't have a pick in the lottery for the foreseeable future it means it would be very difficult to substantially upgrade the roster. We've already gone over the challenge of replacing Kanter if he walks and the finances are just as restrictive if he stays. When the Kanter deal occurred Sam Presti effectively hitched his wagon to this group of guys. You may not like it, but it's already done. Letting Kanter go would allow the Thunder some flexibility moving forward, but not much.
I'm writing this piece just 48 hours before the NBA Draft with the Thunder positioned with the 14th pick. This draft is loaded with a variety of power forwards who should be available for OKC. The team's best opportunity to replace Kanter in a cost effective manner would be to draft his replacement. Are you really convinced that Trey Lyles, Bobby Portis or someone else couldn't provide value close to Kanter next year? No one would put up the offense but someone could shatter what Enes does defensively. Don't think it's reasonable to expect equal value, but you could recoup 75% the production for 25% of the price.
So what will happen: This might be the easiest question to answer. I think the Thunder will almost certainly keep Enes Kanter because he's the most valuable asset they can acquire or retain. Absent of moving Dion Waiters (a guy can dream can't he?) the Thunder can't clear enough cap room to replace Kanter effectively. While they could draft his replacement at 14, the team will likely use that spot to strengthen another area of the team. If you burn the 14th pick on a big, you're pretty limited in terms of finding wing/back court help later in the draft or free agency. Presti went all in with the Kanter deal for a reason, because he believe he's the missing piece. Don't think anything we saw last year would change Presti's feelings. So, I think he's back somewhere in the 4 yr/40M range.
So what should happen: This is a much more difficult question to answer. In a vacuum, I don't think Enes Kanter is worth 10 million a year. However, letting him walk doesn't provide OKC with 10 million to spend. I think this is a classic case of the CBA making teams overpay their own guys because they can't replace them under the cap. I think there could be a better bargain for Kanter's minutes available through the Draft, but that means the Thunder can't get help elsewhere. That doesn't feel like the right move for a team trying to win a title. Begrudgingly, I have to say that Kanter must remain.
Thanks for reading and I encourage feedback of any kind. Don't forget to keep your eyes on the Thunder's balls all year long :)
