The Forgotten Rookie: What will Cameron Payne mean to the Thunder?

We have reached the doldrums of the NBA season. Minicamps are still six weeks away and Summer League is just a distant memory. For the Thunder, the offseason has seemed extra long. On top of the disappointment at the early end to last season the injury of Cameron Payne served to bore OKC fans this summer. While other rookies showed their wares this summer, Payne's injury kept him out of sight and out of mind. Let's examine what the rookie will mean for the Thunder in this pivotal year for the franchise.

At first glance it seems that anything Payne gives OKC this year is a bonus. His primary position, PG, is masterfully filled by All Star Russell Westbrook and the other guard slot is occupied by a conglomeration of more experienced players. Many fans might look at this and assume Payne will be sitting with Mo Cheeks a lot this year. I see another possibility though, a path where Billy Donovan thrusts Payne into an important role off the bench.

Scotty Brooks is not walking through that door. That fact is a point in Payne's favor because it is overwhelmingly likely that Donovan will provide the rookie more minutes than he could have seen under Robot Brooks. The question the is obviously, where can Payne fit in? I believe he will see the majority of minutes at point guard due to his lack of size. Simply put, he can't guard 2's in the NBA. Know who can guard 2's in the NBA though? Russell Westbrook. His versatility opens up way more options for Payne than a more traditional PG. Westbrook, in addition to being the Thunder's best PG, is also OKC's best SG. Think about it, wouldn't you rather play Westbrook at the 2 than Andre Roberson, Dion Waiters or Anthony Morrow? I'm not saying those guys don't have value, but in a vacuum Russell kills them all. Given that, the challenge may be to find a way to play Russ at the 2 with an above average point guard to maximize the Thunder lineup.

Then the question becomes who to play with Russ: Payne or veteran DJ Augustin. We know what DJ brings to the table. He can get the Thunder into the right sets and space the floor due to his quality jumper. We also know what he can't do. He is a below average defender and doesn't provide much in the way of creating for others. Certainly Payne's upside is higher. His quickness and inventiveness on offense should allow him to be a quality two way player. He can stay in front of quicker point guards that Augustin simply can't compete with and also is a better creator off the dribble. A more dynamic point guard could be a perfect tonic to cure the Thunder's stagnant offense. He also provides more spacing than any of the two guards other than Anthony Morrow. If the idea is to get your two best guards on the floor together then I believe you could see more Payne and Westbrook than you might think.

By no means do I expect this to be a starting lineup at any point nor do I think it is a combination that you will see early in the year. It may even be two years early to commit to this lineup in any real way. Just remember, the Thunder have been most dangerous over their time in OKC when Westbrook and Kevin Durant have played alongside another primary ball handler. I don't see another player who can perform that role a la Reggie Jackson or James Harden on the roster other than Cameron Payne. Maybe the baby faced guard from Murray State can be the difference this team needs to get over the hump and fulfill its championship destiny.

Post Summer League NBA Redraft

This piece is by definition on overreaction. Of course, NBA Summer League basketball should not drastically change our opinion of draftees in comparison to years of prior evidence but let's face it, it does change our opinions some. As such. I'm going to redraft the First Round on the premise that teams were able to watch Summer League before the Draft. The idea is that teams would use Summer League performances as a tool in their evaluation process. So here goes, enjoy the 2015 Redraft!

1-Minnesota Timberwolves- Karl Anthony Towns- While the Kentucky big man didn't blow anyone away over the summer I think he'd still be the pick. He flashed enough offensive skill and athleticism to still be seen as a future cornerstone of the north. I am concerned with his proclivity to foul, but this is infinitely correctable.

2-Los Angeles Lakers- Emmanuel Mudiay- I have gone on record as having serious questions about D'Angelo Russel and his summer league play did nothing to raise his stock. He struggled mightily to score and didn't seem to have the "it" factor everyone saw in college. In contrast, Mudiay exuded confidence and that "it" factor. If you could have either for the next 10 years who would you take? For me, it's Mudiay and I think he would be the pick.

3-Philadelphia 76ers- D'Angelo Russell- While I personally prefer Okafor as a prospect, I think Russell would be the better fit in Philly. I don't think Russell is a star, but he is a safe pick in the backcourt for a team that has no answers there. 

4-New York Knicks- Jahlil Okafor- I think Okafor helped his stock a ton in Vegas. We knew he would be a limited defender but I thought he showed more mobility than I expected on that end of the floor. On the offensive end, he is an absolute star. It would be difficult to imagine him not being a 20 point scorer for a number of years. Not bad for the 4th pick. At that spot, you can live with average (at best) defense.

5-Orlando Magic- Mario Hezonja- Most would slot Kristaps Porzingis here but the Magic would be better served to stick with their original pick. Hezonja displayed a swagger during summer league that will be a huge asset for a young Magic squad. They will have a nice, young core with Oladipo, Payton and Tobias Harris. They need an asshole alpha dog and Hezonja fits the bill.

6-Sacramento Kings- Kristaps Porzingis- Confession time, I think Porzingis has a chance to be a real star. Given the uncertainty in Sacramento they should swing for a star. Of course, in reality, they took the much safer Willie Cauley Stein. I know we are all stunned they'd go the opposite of logical.

7-Denver Nuggets- Willie Cauley Steun- Speaking of teams that need everything, examine the Nuggets. They've jettisoned Ty Lawson and are devoid of talent at most spots aside from Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari. New coach Mike Malone would jump at the chance to pair WCS with Faried to set the front court long term. He showed in summer league that he has the potential to dominate defensively and I think he is better than his reputation offensively. He will find a way to score based on his high activity level even without a classic post game.

8-Detroit Pistons- Myles Turner- Some people strongly criticized the Turner pick at 11 but he shut everyone up with his terrific play in the summer. His corrected running stride proved to be true and he flashed a diverse offensive game coupled with an ability to be a real rim protector. I acknowledge the strange fit with Andre Drummond but I think it would work better than his pairing with Greg Monroe last season. He could stretch the floor for Drummond and the two could absolutely own the paint on the defensive end.

9-Charlotte Hornets- Justise Winslow- Just as it should have been obvious on draft night, the obvious fit here would be for the Hornets to take the wing from Duke. He showed an advanced offensive game in Vegas as well as the potential to be an alpha dog which Charlotte sorely lacks. I also considered Bobby Portis here but the Hornets should gamble for higher upside.

10-Miami Heat- Devin Booker- The Heat get hurt in this mock as much as anyone. I thought long and hard here about Portis and even Justin Anderson, but I think Booker showed the chops to be a big time scorer in Vegas. That ability would be too much to pass up at this spot for Pat Riley as he starts to consider life without D Wade. We all knew Booker had a sweet stroke, but his athleticism and feel for the game both were better than advertised in Vegas. That's enough to move him up my board in today's NBA that values shooting above all.

11-Indiana Pacers- Bobby Portis- The idea that Paul George is going to play big minutes at the 4 this year doesn't feel right to me and it would be erased with the arrival of Portis. The former Razorback probably helped himself as much as anyone did during his Vegas stint. He showed a diverse offensive game to go along with the motor we knew was going to be a plus. He is going to be a rotation guy for a long time and at this spot, that's great value.

12-Utah Jazz- Frank Kaminsky- He fits the Jazz profile almost too perfectly. He would be a great fit playing next to Rudy Gobert or Derrick Favors who would both help makeshift his defensive deficiencies. I don't think he is a star or even a starter on a good team, but he can be a terrific bench weapon for a decade. Utah is really close to a playoff team and adding a unique weapon like Frank the Tank might help them get over the top.

13-Phoenix Suns- Stanley Johnson- Everyone fell in love with his energy and competitive steak in Orlando but I think he benefitted from the sub standard competition more than any other prospect. I still don't see a path where he scores the ball well enough to be an above average starter. I like a lot of things about him, but what does he do well offensively? Can you really see him scoring on top flight wings on a nightly basis? Me neither. Still at 13 a quality bench player is good value and I think he profiles well there.

14-Oklahoma City Thunder- Justin Anderson- This is a team that has the talent to win an NBA title this season and should draft accordingly. Cameron Payne did not get the benefit of showing off his game in summer league while Justin Anderson looked like a guy ready to help a good team as a 3 and D bench asset from day one. Just so happens that spot is very available for the Thunder.

Hope you enjoyed the Lottery redraft. If there is sufficient interest, I'll finish the First Round in a second entry. As always, keep your eyes on your balls...or someone else's.

Is Enes Kanter a lock to be in OKC next season? Should he be a lock? #Thunder #ThunderUp #NBAFreeAgency

I get it Thunder fans. Enes Kanter can score. He can really score. He gives us a low post presence that we haven't had since well....ever. But is that enough to make him the right fit for this roster? Does his A+ offense really compensate for his F- defense? On a rookie contract I think the answer is a resounding yes, but for a guy who will likely make over 10 million a year on his next deal I'm not so sure.

The Case for Kanter: Did I mention he can score? We are talking about a 24 year old who averaged 18 and 11 for the Thunder after he came over via trade. There aren't a ton of guys who can do that at any age in this League, much less at 24. What's even more impressive, is that he did this work predominantly without Durant or Ibaka on the floor. Of course that provided him with more shots, but the floor was much more compact without those two to stretch the defense. He was efficient without those guys too. He shot over 55% from the floor and is a quality FT shooter at over 77%. There can be no question that he is a legitimate low post scorer. He is part of dying breed.

His status as such a forceful low post threat should allow him to help the Thunder even more when they are back at full strength. Imagine the stress that a lineup of Westbrook, Morrow, Durant, Kanter and Ibaka could put on a defense. You are talking about 5 big time scoring options that have to be keyed on at all times. You put Enes Kanter on the floor with the starters and you may be talking about a historically efficient NBA offense. His effect on the offense could even make playing Andre Roberson more palatable (aka easier to hide). He also proved that he could play offensively along with Steven Adams so he's a part who fits in the offense no matter who's on the floor.

Many would argue that the Thunder have to keep Kanter because they gave up assets to get him. The Thunder organization is too smart for this close minded thinking. What's gone is gone, the question to retain Kanter can only come down to what he can provide the franchise over a potential replacement. Still, Kanter is a valuable asset due to his age and unique skill set. If the Thunder don't pay him what he wants it's a pretty good bet that a competitor will. He'd also be a challenge to replace given the fact that OKC only has about 3 million dollars in cap space at the moment. Signing Kanter would put them over the Cap but is allowable because it involves resigning your own player. If you don't resign Kanter, you are more or less restricted to stay under the Luxury Tax threshold which means you'd have to replace Kanter with a minimum or rookie salary. This would be a challenge for Sam Presti despite how excellent he is at his job.

So the case to keep him is pretty simple. He is an offensive juggernaut who'd be nearly impossible to replace via free agency. Now to the other side of the coin.

The Case to Cut Kanter: Forgive the alliteration but it was fun. As good as Kanter is on the offensive end he is at least as horrible on the defensive end. I'm not sure he can guard anyone. The Thunder D was abhorrent with him on the floor last year. This is not up for debate. He literally had the worst defensive statistics in the League last year at center. Yes, even worse than Andrea Bargnani in some cases. I'm not going to delve into the trove of stats that can back up the fact that Kanter can't guard anyone defensively. Accept the last year he was about as good a defender as the chair who Darko worked out against.

With that being said, I don't think it's impossible that Kanter could become an average defender. It's not as if he's devoid of athleticism or physical gifts. He is a strong player who can bang and has at least some lateral quickness. We're not looking at Mutumbo here, but he could become an average defender with the right coaching and effort. Even better for Enes, is that he would potentially share the floor with either Serge Ibaka or Steven Adams. That means he almost always would guard the weaker post on the other team. He has been a fair rebounder as well so at least he's qualified to terminate the possession. Thunder defense with Kanter on the floor is not a hopeless situation. He come become an average defender and when combined with Ibaka or Adams that would make the OKC front line above average defensively. Not great, but not awful either.

Signing Kanter also means that the Thunder are locked into this core group, and only this core group for the foreseeable future. (Yes, Durant could leave and if he does they will blow the team up anyway so this would be a pointless discussion. Let's just hope that doesn't occur) Signing Kanter would put the Thunder well over the Tax and would mean the only additions they could make moving forward would be minimum contracts and draftees. Given the likelihood that OKC won't have a pick in the lottery for the foreseeable future it means it would be very difficult to substantially upgrade the roster. We've already gone over the challenge of replacing Kanter if he walks and the finances are just as restrictive if he stays. When the Kanter deal occurred Sam Presti effectively hitched his wagon to this group of guys. You may not like it, but it's already done. Letting Kanter go would allow the Thunder some flexibility moving forward, but not much.

I'm writing this piece just 48 hours before the NBA Draft with the Thunder positioned with the 14th pick. This draft is loaded with a variety of power forwards who should be available for OKC. The team's best opportunity to replace Kanter in a cost effective manner would be to draft his replacement. Are you really convinced that Trey Lyles, Bobby Portis or someone else couldn't provide value close to Kanter next year? No one would put up the offense but someone could shatter what Enes does defensively. Don't think it's reasonable to expect equal value, but you could recoup 75% the production for 25% of the price.

So what will happen: This might be the easiest question to answer. I think the Thunder will almost certainly keep Enes Kanter because he's the most valuable asset they can acquire or retain. Absent of moving Dion Waiters (a guy can dream can't he?) the Thunder can't clear enough cap room to replace Kanter effectively. While they could draft his replacement at 14, the team will likely use that spot to strengthen another area of the team. If you burn the 14th pick on a big, you're pretty limited in terms of finding wing/back court help later in the draft or free agency. Presti went all in with the Kanter deal for a reason, because he believe he's the missing piece. Don't think anything we saw last year would change Presti's feelings. So, I think he's back somewhere in the 4 yr/40M range.

So what should happen: This is a much more difficult question to answer. In a vacuum, I don't think Enes Kanter is worth 10 million a  year. However, letting him walk doesn't provide OKC with 10 million to spend. I think this is a classic case of the CBA making teams overpay their own guys because they can't replace them under the cap. I think there could be a better bargain for Kanter's minutes available through the Draft, but that means the Thunder can't get help elsewhere. That doesn't feel like the right move for a team trying to win a title. Begrudgingly, I have to say that Kanter must remain.

Thanks for reading and I encourage feedback of any kind. Don't forget to keep your eyes on the Thunder's balls all year long :)