Saido Berahino is not worth a 25m transfer fee in a vacuum. A reasonable fee for him would likely be somewhere between 15 and 18m. For much of the transfer season I've been convinced that Tottenham would be able to purchase the young West Brom forward for a fee within that range. After this weekend's events on the pitch and today's news from Jeremy Peace I think we may be forced to meet their price.
That's right folks, I'm telling you that I believe Daniel Levy will be defeated by Jeremy Peace in these negotiations. The fact of the matter is that West Brom are armed with almost all of the leverage in this transfer tussle. Let's examine the undisputable facts. Working in West Brom's favor are quite a few key factors. They are in possession of the prized commodity (Berahino) and are under very little pressure to sell him. This could change if the player were to turn in a transfer request but as of yet that has not occurred. They also are not under pressure to move quickly since they have already signed Rondon as his replacement. In this game of chicken, West Brom has no need to blink first. They can comfortably wait until deadline to finish a deal prior to Deadline Day. Peace's statement today was also a master stroke by the West Brim chairman to make sure fan opinion doesn't turn against him and mitigate his advantages. He has solidified his base of fan support by publicly rejecting the Spurs' opening bid. This ensures his ability to continue negotiations without being criticized by fans as rolling over to Tottenham.
On the other hand, Daniel Levy is entirely under the gun. Tottenham's need for strikers was obvious when the Window opened and the need has only grown since then. Emmanuel Adebayor has been banished, Roberto Soldado has been sold and now Harry Kane has been declared unfit by manager Mauricio Pochettino. Nacer Chadli and Erik Lamela are the squad's current backups at striker and both are entirely unqualified. Perhaps Clinton N'Jie can exceed immediate expectations, but surely the youngster can't be counted on for such a prominent role so quickly after his arrival. Every Spurs fan can agree that more strikers must be added to threaten the top 4.
While Jeremy Peace quelled fan pressure in advance, Daniel Levy's inaction has done the opposite. I suspect he was betting on West Brom's valuation for Berahino to drop as the window's close neared while the opposite has occurred. I'm not saying it wasn't a smart bet on Levy's part, but it hasn't paid off. Fan pressure has justifiably increased on the notoriously slow acting Spurs chairman which further compromises his negotiating position.
The only card Levy can hope to play to turn things back in Tottenham's favor is the potential sale of defender Federico Fazio. Media reports have speculated the Baggies are hot after Fazio at a fee of around 5m. I'd expect Levy to hold up Fazio's sale to push Peace to negotiate more liberally for Berahino. I can't imagine this tactic being a huge success, but I can't see Levy giving an inch that could possibly help him.
So what should we expect to happen with Berahino in the next two weeks? My guess is that you will see reports of heightened Spurs interest in QPR forward Charlie Austin and likely some new striker targets as soon as tomorrow. No time can be wasted in scaring West Brom into thinking there is competition. As a reaction, count on more sabre rattling by West Brom too. Expect renewed Berahino to Man City rumors to increase and we may even see more public rhetoric from Peace about holding on to his starlet.
But what does it all mean??? Tottenham will end up paying very close to 25m for Berahino contrary to Daniel Levy's wishes. Fans will criticize the fee but will take some satisfaction at the addition of a young English talent with experience in the Premier League. Enjoy the next two weeks, it's going to be a wild ride.
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